1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 17

NK Domzale–Olimpija Ljubljana

0–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 November 2022 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Domžale

Goals and red cards

48'Olimpija LjubljanaSvit Sešlar
61'NK DomzaleB. Markus · red card
69'Olimpija LjubljanaMario Kvesić
88'Olimpija LjubljanaSvit Sešlar

Match statistics

Match statistics
NK Domzale		Olimpija Ljubljana
4	Shots	20
2	Shots on target	6
0	Shots inside the box	0
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
0	Corners	9
2	Offsides	2
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
17	Fouls

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NK Domzale 1.50 · Olimpija Ljubljana 1.34. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots NK Domzale 4 · Olimpija Ljubljana 20; on target 2 and 6.

Referee

N. Kajtazović→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “NK Domzale to win”. Second comes “Olimpija Ljubljana to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for NK Domzale, 1.34 for Olimpija Ljubljana.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 81 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NK Domzale to win40.2%

Draw27.1%

Olimpija Ljubljana to win32.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

4	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

NK Domzale lead at half-time31.7%

Level at half-time43.5%

Olimpija Ljubljana lead at half-time24.8%

First-half double chance

1X — NK Domzale ahead or level75.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Olimpija Ljubljana ahead68.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 81 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NK Domzale score1.50

Attack: NK Domzale score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Olimpija Ljubljana's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Olimpija Ljubljana score1.34

Attack: Olimpija Ljubljana score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: NK Domzale's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–19.6%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.