Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 37

Gaziantep FK–Kasımpaşa

2–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 May 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Gaziantep FKA. Maxim (penalty)
45+5'Gaziantep FKB. Ndiaye (assist: D. Sorescu)
51'KasımpaşaM. Fall (assist: C. Keles)
68'KasımpaşaNuno da Costa (assist: Cláudio Winck)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gaziantep FK		Kasımpaşa
10	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	8
1	Offsides	1
36%	Possession	64%
248	Passes	442
185	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gaziantep FK 1.53 · Kasımpaşa 1.42. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Gaziantep FK 10 · Kasımpaşa 14; on target 3 and 4.
Kasımpaşa kept the ball more (64%).

Unavailable players

Gaziantep FK

G. Stephenout · Leg Injury
E. Tasdemirdoubtful · injury
Q. Daubindoubtful · injury

Kasımpaşa

A. Barakdoubtful · injury
J. Brekalodoubtful · injury
S. Ciftpinardoubtful · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

F. Tokail→

4.52

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Kasımpaşa to win”. Second comes “Gaziantep FK to win” at 34.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Gaziantep FK, 1.76 for Kasımpaşa.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,018 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gaziantep FK to win34.5%

Draw24.6%

Kasımpaşa to win40.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Gaziantep FK win or draw59.1%

12 — any result other than a draw75.4%

X2 — draw or Kasımpaşa win65.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.6%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Gaziantep FK lead at half-time33.8%

Level at half-time41.7%

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time24.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Gaziantep FK ahead or level75.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Kasımpaşa ahead66.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1017 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gaziantep FK: at least 12Actual: 16
Kasımpaşa: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Gaziantep FK: at least 4Actual: 3
Kasımpaşa: at least 5Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals66.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gaziantep FK score1.53

Attack: Gaziantep FK score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kasımpaşa score1.42

Attack: Kasımpaşa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gaziantep FK's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%1–29.4%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1018 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 94 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.