First League · Bulgaria · Relegation Round - 3

Pirin Blagoevgrad–Botev Vratsa

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 May 2023 at 15:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Hristo Botev, Blagoevgrad

Goals and red cards

56'Pirin BlagoevgradD. Kondrakov (penalty)
90+3'Pirin BlagoevgradV. Bengyuzov (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pirin Blagoevgrad		Botev Vratsa
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pirin Blagoevgrad 1.34 · Botev Vratsa 0.93. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Pirin Blagoevgrad 0 · Botev Vratsa 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

I. Zanev→

5.43

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “Pirin Blagoevgrad to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Pirin Blagoevgrad, 0.93 for Botev Vratsa.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (1X — Pirin Blagoevgrad win or draw).
These values were computed from 247 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pirin Blagoevgrad to win45.5%

Draw29.7%

Botev Vratsa to win24.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Pirin Blagoevgrad lead at half-time29.0%

Level at half-time45.7%

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time25.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Pirin Blagoevgrad ahead or level74.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Botev Vratsa ahead71.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 247 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pirin Blagoevgrad: at least 12
Botev Vratsa: at least 13

Corners

Pirin Blagoevgrad: at least 4
Botev Vratsa: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pirin Blagoevgrad score1.34

Attack: Pirin Blagoevgrad score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa concede 71% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Botev Vratsa score0.93

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pirin Blagoevgrad's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–013.1%0–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.