First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 28

Beroe–Pirin Blagoevgrad

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 April 2023 at 12:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Beroe, Stara Zagora

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'BeroeSimeon Mechev

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beroe		Pirin Blagoevgrad
9	Shots	10
1	Shots on target	2
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beroe 1.10 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 0.88. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Beroe 9 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 10; on target 1 and 2.

Referee

I. Zanev→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “Beroe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Beroe, 0.88 for Pirin Blagoevgrad.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (1X — Beroe win or draw).
These values were computed from 221 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beroe to win39.6%

Draw32.6%

Pirin Blagoevgrad to win27.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

19	Fouls	14

6	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Beroe lead at half-time28.6%

Level at half-time48.2%

Pirin Blagoevgrad lead at half-time23.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Beroe ahead or level76.8%

12 — not level at half-time51.8%

X2 — level or Pirin Blagoevgrad ahead71.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 221 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beroe: at least 14Actual: 19
Pirin Blagoevgrad: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Beroe: at least 5Actual: 4
Pirin Blagoevgrad: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beroe score1.10

Attack: Beroe score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pirin Blagoevgrad's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pirin Blagoevgrad score0.88

Attack: Pirin Blagoevgrad score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beroe concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–014.5%0–013.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.