First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 23

Slavia Sofia–Arda Kardzhali

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 March 2023 at 10:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Slavia, Sofia

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.5% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

81'Slavia SofiaT. Tasev (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slavia Sofia		Arda Kardzhali
6	Shots	5
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slavia Sofia 1.07 · Arda Kardzhali 1.03. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Slavia Sofia 6 · Arda Kardzhali 5; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

I. Zanev→

5.20

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.3%: “Slavia Sofia to win”. Second comes “Arda Kardzhali to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for Slavia Sofia, 1.03 for Arda Kardzhali.
The highest double chance value is 68.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 180 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slavia Sofia to win35.3%

Draw32.0%

Arda Kardzhali to win32.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Slavia Sofia lead at half-time29.5%

Level at half-time49.9%

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time20.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Slavia Sofia ahead or level79.4%

12 — not level at half-time50.1%

X2 — level or Arda Kardzhali ahead70.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 180 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slavia Sofia: at least 12Actual: 14
Arda Kardzhali: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Slavia Sofia: at least 4
Arda Kardzhali: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slavia Sofia score1.07

Attack: Slavia Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.03

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slavia Sofia's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%1–012.4%0–012.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.