Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 35

Kayserispor–Antalyaspor

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Monday, 12 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayseri

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'KayserisporM. Cardoso (assist: K. Kayra Yilmaz)
26'AntalyasporThalisson (assist: Jakub Kałuziński)
29'KayserisporM. Cardoso (assist: R. Civelek)
63'KayserisporM. Cardoso (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kayserispor		Antalyaspor
12	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	1
5	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
426	Passes	438
375	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kayserispor 1.76 · Antalyaspor 1.06. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Kayserispor 12 · Antalyaspor 6; on target 6 and 2.

Unavailable players

Kayserispor

S. Bahokenout · Achilles Tendon Injury
Y. Ackahout · Muscle Injury

Antalyaspor

A. Townsendout · not in squad
E. Uzunout · Knee Injury
E. Yeşilyurtout · Knee Injury
K. Piricout · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

A. Kardeşler→

3.90

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.0%: “Kayserispor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for Kayserispor, 1.09 for Antalyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (1X — Kayserispor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,007 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kayserispor to win50.0%

Draw26.2%

Antalyaspor to win23.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Kayserispor lead at half-time39.5%

Level at half-time41.3%

Antalyaspor lead at half-time19.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Kayserispor ahead or level80.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Antalyaspor ahead60.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1006 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kayserispor: at least 13Actual: 11
Antalyaspor: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Kayserispor: at least 4Actual: 6
Antalyaspor: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kayserispor score1.76

Attack: Kayserispor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Antalyaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Antalyaspor score1.06

Attack: Antalyaspor score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kayserispor's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.6%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.