Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Round - 6

PAS Giannina–Asteras Tripolis

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 May 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Zosimades, Ioannina

Goals and red cards

84'PAS GianninaK. Rosero

Match statistics

Match statistics
PAS Giannina		Asteras Tripolis
6	Shots	8
1	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
455	Passes	541
380	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PAS Giannina 1.10 · Asteras Tripolis 0.93. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots PAS Giannina 6 · Asteras Tripolis 8; on target 1 and 3.

Referee

A. Gamaris→

4.83

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.4%: “PAS Giannina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for PAS Giannina, 0.93 for Asteras Tripolis.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (1X — PAS Giannina win or draw).
These values were computed from 206 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PAS Giannina to win38.4%

Draw32.4%

Asteras Tripolis to win29.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

PAS Giannina lead at half-time33.0%

Level at half-time48.8%

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time18.2%

First-half double chance

1X — PAS Giannina ahead or level81.8%

12 — not level at half-time51.2%

X2 — level or Asteras Tripolis ahead67.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 206 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PAS Giannina: at least 12Actual: 11
Asteras Tripolis: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

PAS Giannina: at least 3Actual: 5
Asteras Tripolis: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PAS Giannina score1.10

Attack: PAS Giannina score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score0.93

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PAS Giannina concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%1–013.8%0–012.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.