Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Round - 4

Levadiakos–Ionikos

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 April 2023 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Levadia Municipal Stadium, Levaja

Goals and red cards

26'IonikosB. Fadiga (assist: Z. Machach)
50'LevadiakosA. Jeremejeff (assist: G. Vrakas)
56'LevadiakosAlfredo Mejía
85'IonikosDmytro Chygrynskiy

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levadiakos		Ionikos
12	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
253	Passes	211
119	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levadiakos 1.03 · Ionikos 0.88. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Levadiakos 12 · Ionikos 5; on target 6 and 4.
Levadiakos kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

E. Manouchos→

4.00

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.3%: “Levadiakos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 33.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for Levadiakos, 0.88 for Ionikos.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (1X — Levadiakos win or draw).
These values were computed from 194 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levadiakos to win37.3%

Draw33.5%

Ionikos to win29.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Levadiakos lead at half-time34.2%

Level at half-time47.4%

Ionikos lead at half-time18.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Levadiakos ahead or level81.6%

12 — not level at half-time52.6%

X2 — level or Ionikos ahead65.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 194 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levadiakos: at least 14Actual: 18
Ionikos: at least 15Actual: 16

Corners

Levadiakos: at least 4Actual: 7
Ionikos: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levadiakos score1.03

Attack: Levadiakos score below the league average (44% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ionikos concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ionikos score0.88

Attack: Ionikos score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levadiakos concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–014.6%0–014.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.