Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Round - 2

Ionikos–Asteras Tripolis

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 April 2023 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Athens

Goals and red cards

10'IonikosDavid Carmona (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ionikos		Asteras Tripolis
12	Shots	5
2	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	4
3	Offsides	3
47%	Possession	53%
272	Passes	329
186	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ionikos 0.93 · Asteras Tripolis 1.01. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Ionikos 12 · Asteras Tripolis 5; on target 2 and 1.

Referee

A. Gamaris→

4.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.6%: “Asteras Tripolis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 33.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.93 for Ionikos, 1.01 for Asteras Tripolis.
The highest double chance value is 68.9% (X2 — draw or Asteras Tripolis win).
These values were computed from 185 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ionikos to win31.1%

Draw33.3%

Asteras Tripolis to win35.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	19

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Ionikos lead at half-time26.5%

Level at half-time48.7%

Asteras Tripolis lead at half-time24.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Ionikos ahead or level75.2%

12 — not level at half-time51.3%

X2 — level or Asteras Tripolis ahead73.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 185 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ionikos: at least 13Actual: 15
Asteras Tripolis: at least 14Actual: 19

Corners

Ionikos: at least 3Actual: 10
Asteras Tripolis: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ionikos score0.93

Attack: Ionikos score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Asteras Tripolis's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Asteras Tripolis score1.01

Attack: Asteras Tripolis score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ionikos concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%0–014.1%0–113.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.