Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 26

Aris Thessalonikis–PAS Giannina

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 March 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Thessaloniki

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'PAS GianninaA. Liasos (assist: P. Tzimas)
26'Aris ThessalonikisV. Darida (assist: M. García)
43'Aris ThessalonikisM. García (assist: Rafael Camacho)
58'Aris ThessalonikisA. Kamara (assist: Rafael Camacho)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aris Thessalonikis		PAS Giannina
23	Shots	4
10	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
73%	Possession	27%
724	Passes	260
651	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aris Thessalonikis 1.65 · PAS Giannina 0.61. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Aris Thessalonikis 23 · PAS Giannina 4; on target 10 and 2.
Aris Thessalonikis kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

K. Katoikos→

5.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.1%: “Aris Thessalonikis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for Aris Thessalonikis, 0.61 for PAS Giannina.
The highest double chance value is 87.9% (1X — Aris Thessalonikis win or draw).
These values were computed from 175 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aris Thessalonikis to win63.1%

Draw24.8%

PAS Giannina to win12.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time35.8%

Level at half-time47.4%

PAS Giannina lead at half-time16.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Aris Thessalonikis ahead or level83.2%

12 — not level at half-time52.6%

X2 — level or PAS Giannina ahead64.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 175 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 13Actual: 15
PAS Giannina: at least 15Actual: 10

Corners

Aris Thessalonikis: at least 5Actual: 9
PAS Giannina: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score1.65

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: PAS Giannina's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAS Giannina score0.61

Attack: PAS Giannina score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.8%2–014.7%1–111.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.