Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 22

Lamia–OFI

1–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Monday, 13 February 2023 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'OFIJon Toral (assist: M. Bakić)
43'OFIM. Bakić (assist: E. Larsson)
61'OFIA. Diousse
84'OFILuiz Phellype (assist: Guðmundur Þórarinsson)
90+5'LamiaS. Tsiloulis

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lamia		OFI
14	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	5
2	Offsides	5
45%	Possession	55%
353	Passes	451
254	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lamia 0.88 · OFI 1.16. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Lamia 14 · OFI 15; on target 6 and 6.
OFI kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

A. Gamaris→

4.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “OFI to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.88 for Lamia, 1.16 for OFI.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (X2 — draw or OFI win).
These values were computed from 149 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lamia to win26.5%

Draw31.9%

OFI to win41.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Lamia lead at half-time17.7%

Level at half-time49.0%

OFI lead at half-time33.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Lamia ahead or level66.7%

12 — not level at half-time51.0%

X2 — level or OFI ahead82.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 149 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lamia: at least 13Actual: 15
OFI: at least 16Actual: 19

Corners

Lamia: at least 4Actual: 6
OFI: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lamia score0.88

Attack: Lamia score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: OFI's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals OFI score1.16

Attack: OFI score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lamia concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%0–114.4%0–012.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.