Super League 1 · Greece · Regular Season - 14

PAS Giannina–Olympiakos Piraeus

2–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 21 December 2022 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Zosimades, Ioannina

Goals and red cards

33'Olympiakos PiraeusK. Fortounis (assist: Y. El Arabi)
45'Olympiakos PiraeusK. Fortounis
64'PAS GianninaG. Pamlidis (assist: S. Pilios)
76'PAS GianninaA. Liasos (assist: Ahmad Mendes Moreira)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PAS Giannina		Olympiakos Piraeus
8	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	7
6	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	2
5	Offsides	1
33%	Possession	67%
316	Passes	681
230	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PAS Giannina 0.66 · Olympiakos Piraeus 1.65. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots PAS Giannina 8 · Olympiakos Piraeus 13; on target 3 and 7.
Olympiakos Piraeus kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

S. Koumbarakis→

8.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.6%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.66 for PAS Giannina, 1.65 for Olympiakos Piraeus.
The highest double chance value is 86.8% (X2 — draw or Olympiakos Piraeus win).
These values were computed from 94 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PAS Giannina to win13.2%

Draw25.1%

Olympiakos Piraeus to win61.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

PAS Giannina lead at half-time17.5%

Level at half-time49.2%

Olympiakos Piraeus lead at half-time33.4%

First-half double chance

1X — PAS Giannina ahead or level66.6%

12 — not level at half-time50.8%

X2 — level or Olympiakos Piraeus ahead82.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 94 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PAS Giannina: at least 12Actual: 9
Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 14Actual: 10

Corners

PAS Giannina: at least 4Actual: 6
Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PAS Giannina score0.66

Attack: PAS Giannina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score1.65

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: PAS Giannina concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–115.9%0–214.0%1–112.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.