Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 35

Eyüpspor–Kasımpaşa

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'KasımpaşaNuno da Costa (assist: Y. Ozcan)
64'KasımpaşaNuno da Costa (assist: H. Hajradinovic)
90+1'KasımpaşaC. Keles (assist: Nuno da Costa)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eyüpspor		Kasımpaşa
7	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
416	Passes	384
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eyüpspor 1.86 · Kasımpaşa 1.29. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Eyüpspor 7 · Kasımpaşa 9; on target 2 and 4.

Unavailable players

Eyüpspor

F. Midtsjoout · Knee Injury
I. Taskinout · Muscle Injury
L. Duboisout · Muscle Injury
Luccas Claroout · yellow-card suspension
M. Thiamout · yellow-card suspension
S. Gumusout · injury
Yalçın Kayanout · yellow-card suspension

Kasımpaşa

G. Guldoubtful · injury
N. Opokudoubtful · injury
S. Ciftpinardoubtful · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

A. Kayatepe→

3.74

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “Kasımpaşa to win”. Second comes “Eyüpspor to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Eyüpspor, 1.67 for Kasımpaşa.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,001 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eyüpspor to win31.9%

Draw25.6%

Kasımpaşa to win42.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	20

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Eyüpspor win or draw57.5%

12 — any result other than a draw74.4%

X2 — draw or Kasımpaşa win68.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Eyüpspor lead at half-time48.6%

Level at half-time38.7%

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time12.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Eyüpspor ahead or level87.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or Kasımpaşa ahead51.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1000 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eyüpspor: at least 12Actual: 7
Kasımpaşa: at least 11Actual: 20

Corners

Eyüpspor: at least 4Actual: 2
Kasımpaşa: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eyüpspor score1.86

Attack: Eyüpspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kasımpaşa score1.29

Attack: Kasımpaşa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eyüpspor's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–29.8%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1001 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 33 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.