Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 35

Başakşehir–Fenerbahçe

1–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 9 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'FenerbahçeM. Müldür (assist: İ. Yüksek)
60'FenerbahçeM. Škriniar
86'FenerbahçeY. En Nesyri (assist: F. Kostić)
90+1'BaşakşehirÖ. Beyaz
90+3'FenerbahçeO. Aydın (assist: İ. Kahveci)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Başakşehir		Fenerbahçe
14	Shots	19
6	Shots on target	9
8	Shots inside the box	16
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
445	Passes	441
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Başakşehir 1.19 · Fenerbahçe 1.79. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Başakşehir 14 · Fenerbahçe 19; on target 6 and 9.

Unavailable players

Başakşehir

Onur Ergünout · Broken ankle

Fenerbahçe

A. Saint-Maximinout · injury
C. Soyuncuout · yellow-card suspension
J. Oosterwoldeout · Knee Injury
M. Yandasout · Knock
Rodrigo Becaoout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

B. Pakkan→

5.65

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.0%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for Başakşehir, 1.98 for Fenerbahçe.
The highest double chance value is 79.2% (X2 — draw or Fenerbahçe win).
These values were computed from 999 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Başakşehir to win20.8%

Draw23.2%

Fenerbahçe to win56.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Başakşehir lead at half-time24.1%

Level at half-time39.5%

Fenerbahçe lead at half-time36.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Başakşehir ahead or level63.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or Fenerbahçe ahead75.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 998 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Başakşehir: at least 13Actual: 9
Fenerbahçe: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Başakşehir: at least 3Actual: 5
Fenerbahçe: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Başakşehir score1.19

Attack: Başakşehir score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fenerbahçe score1.79

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Başakşehir's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%1–210.9%0–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.