Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 30

Kristiansund BK–jerv

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 November 2022 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansund

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'jervM. Ugland (assist: E. Hustad)
31'Kristiansund BKB. Willumsson (assist: A. Hopmark)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kristiansund BK		jerv
18	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	7
2	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
386	Passes	427
308	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kristiansund BK 2.34 · jerv 1.12. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Kristiansund BK 18 · jerv 10; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

K. Hagenes→

4.00

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.9%: “Kristiansund BK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.34 for Kristiansund BK, 1.12 for jerv.
The highest double chance value is 84.7% (1X — Kristiansund BK win or draw).
These values were computed from 232 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kristiansund BK to win64.9%

Draw19.7%

jerv to win15.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,215 of 3,677 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kristiansund BK win or draw84.7%

12 — any result other than a draw80.3%

X2 — draw or jerv win35.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Kristiansund BK lead at half-time54.7%

Level at half-time32.9%

jerv lead at half-time12.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Kristiansund BK ahead or level87.6%

12 — not level at half-time67.1%

X2 — level or jerv ahead45.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 232 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kristiansund BK: at least 10Actual: 6
jerv: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

Kristiansund BK: at least 7Actual: 8
jerv: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals68.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 969 of 1,384 predictions were correct (70.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 65.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kristiansund BK score2.34

Attack: Kristiansund BK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: jerv concede 47% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals jerv score1.12

Attack: jerv score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kristiansund BK concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%1–19.1%2–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 232 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 29 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.