Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 28

Valerenga–Sarpsborg 08 FF

3–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 October 2022 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Intility Arena, Oslo

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Sarpsborg 08 FFS. Tibbling
18'Sarpsborg 08 FFMikkel Maigaard (assist: J. Soltvedt)
20'ValerengaV. Hedenstad (assist: A. Layouni)
45+2'ValerengaA. Layouni
67'ValerengaV. Hedenstad (assist: T. Børven)
69'Sarpsborg 08 FFG. Molins (assist: K. Opseth)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Valerenga		Sarpsborg 08 FF
13	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	8
10	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	7
0	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
530	Passes	493
441	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Valerenga 2.11 · Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.47. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Valerenga 13 · Sarpsborg 08 FF 17; on target 5 and 8.

Referee

T. Hagen→

3.43

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.1%: “Valerenga to win”. Second comes “Sarpsborg 08 FF to win” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for Valerenga, 1.47 for Sarpsborg 08 FF.
The highest double chance value is 77.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 216 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Valerenga to win52.1%

Draw22.6%

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win25.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Valerenga lead at half-time48.4%

Level at half-time33.3%

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time18.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Valerenga ahead or level81.7%

12 — not level at half-time66.7%

X2 — level or Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead51.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 216 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Valerenga: at least 8Actual: 7
Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Valerenga: at least 6Actual: 4
Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Valerenga score2.11

Attack: Valerenga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score1.47

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Valerenga's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.0%1–19.6%2–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.