Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 27

jerv–Viking

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 October 2022 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: J.J. Ugland Stadion, Grimstad

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

60'jervA. Diallo (assist: P. Wilson)
71'VikingD. Brekalo (assist: Z. Tripic)
76'VikingM. Traoré (assist: Z. Tripic)
82'jervJ. Norheim (assist: Iman Mafi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
jerv		Viking
15	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	15
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	12
2	Offsides	6
43%	Possession	57%
341	Passes	432
248	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: jerv 1.18 · Viking 2.03. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots jerv 15 · Viking 18; on target 4 and 6.
Viking kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

O. Nilsen→

2.54

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.9%: “Viking to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for jerv, 2.03 for Viking.
The highest double chance value is 79.7% (X2 — draw or Viking win).
These values were computed from 210 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

jerv to win20.3%

Draw22.8%

Viking to win56.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

jerv lead at half-time32.5%

Level at half-time39.6%

Viking lead at half-time27.8%

First-half double chance

1X — jerv ahead or level72.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Viking ahead67.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 210 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

jerv: at least 10Actual: 12
Viking: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

jerv: at least 4Actual: 6
Viking: at least 5Actual: 12

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals jerv score1.18

Attack: jerv score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Viking's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Viking score2.03

Attack: Viking score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: jerv concede 52% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.8%1–210.8%0–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.