Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 25

jerv–Aalesund

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 19 October 2022 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: J.J. Ugland Stadion, Grimstad

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'AalesundS. Nordli

Match statistics

Match statistics
jerv		Aalesund
15	Shots	6
1	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
541	Passes	369
401	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: jerv 1.31 · Aalesund 1.76. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots jerv 15 · Aalesund 6; on target 1 and 4.
jerv kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

R. Saggi→

3.84

yellows per match

0.42

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.6%: “Aalesund to win”. Second comes “jerv to win” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for jerv, 1.76 for Aalesund.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 207 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

jerv to win27.3%

Draw25.2%

Aalesund to win47.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,197 of 4,687 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

jerv lead at half-time27.8%

Level at half-time41.0%

Aalesund lead at half-time31.2%

First-half double chance

1X — jerv ahead or level68.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Aalesund ahead72.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 207 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

jerv: at least 10Actual: 8
Aalesund: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

jerv: at least 5Actual: 3
Aalesund: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals jerv score1.31

Attack: jerv score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aalesund's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aalesund score1.76

Attack: Aalesund score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: jerv concede 54% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%1–210.4%2–17.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.