Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 26

Sandefjord–jerv

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 October 2022 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Release Arena, Sandefjord

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 17%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'jervA. Diallo (assist: T. Wichne)
8'jervE. Brenden (assist: A. Diallo)
38'SandefjordM. Ofkir (assist: A. Tveter)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sandefjord		jerv
19	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	4
16	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
12	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
413	Passes	444
306	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sandefjord 2.34 · jerv 1.20. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Sandefjord 19 · jerv 7; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

K. Hagenes→

4.18

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.1%: “Sandefjord to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.34 for Sandefjord, 1.20 for jerv.
The highest double chance value is 83.2% (1X — Sandefjord win or draw).
These values were computed from 201 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sandefjord to win63.1%

Draw20.1%

jerv to win16.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 816 of 1,253 predictions were correct (65.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sandefjord win or draw83.2%

12 — any result other than a draw79.9%

X2 — draw or jerv win36.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Sandefjord lead at half-time56.4%

Level at half-time32.2%

jerv lead at half-time11.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Sandefjord ahead or level88.6%

12 — not level at half-time67.8%

X2 — level or jerv ahead43.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 201 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sandefjord: at least 9Actual: 9
jerv: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Sandefjord: at least 6Actual: 12
jerv: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals70.1%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 488 of 666 predictions were correct (73.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 65.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sandefjord score2.34

Attack: Sandefjord score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: jerv concede 54% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals jerv score1.20

Attack: jerv score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sandefjord concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.5%1–19.0%3–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 201 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 24 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.