Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 24

Ham-Kam–jerv

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 October 2022 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Briskeby Arena, Hamar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Ham-KamA. Melgalvis (assist: M. Bjorlo)
49'Ham-KamA. Melgalvis (assist: P. Kirkevold)
63'jervM. Wichmann (assist: E. Brenden)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ham-Kam		jerv
18	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	7
13	Shots inside the box	6
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	6
0	Offsides	3
41%	Possession	59%
334	Passes	475
225	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ham-Kam 2.17 · jerv 0.85. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Ham-Kam 18 · jerv 13; on target 6 and 7.
jerv kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. Lien→

1.89

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.3%: “Ham-Kam to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.17 for Ham-Kam, 0.85 for jerv.
The highest double chance value is 88.1% (1X — Ham-Kam win or draw).
These values were computed from 187 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ham-Kam to win68.3%

Draw19.8%

jerv to win11.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	5

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Ham-Kam lead at half-time49.8%

Level at half-time36.4%

jerv lead at half-time13.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Ham-Kam ahead or level86.2%

12 — not level at half-time63.6%

X2 — level or jerv ahead50.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 187 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ham-Kam: at least 10Actual: 14
jerv: at least 9Actual: 5

Corners

Ham-Kam: at least 6Actual: 4
jerv: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ham-Kam score2.17

Attack: Ham-Kam score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: jerv concede 53% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals jerv score0.85

Attack: jerv score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ham-Kam concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.9%2–110.8%1–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.