Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 23

Sarpsborg 08 FF–jerv

4–3

HT 2–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 September 2022 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'jervE. Brenden (assist: H. Bredeli)
11'Sarpsborg 08 FFA. Saletros (assist: E. Wichne)
24'Sarpsborg 08 FFT. Heintz
26'jervA. Tjærandsen-Skau (assist: T. Wichne)
36'jervD. Håkans (assist: L. Fernandes)
69'Sarpsborg 08 FFT. Heintz (assist: M. Odegaard)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF		jerv
24	Shots	8
13	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	8
8	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
503	Passes	361
383	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.84 · jerv 0.88. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots Sarpsborg 08 FF 24 · jerv 8; on target 13 and 3.
Sarpsborg 08 FF kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

C. Moen→

3.27

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.7%: “Sarpsborg 08 FF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.84 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 0.88 for jerv.
The highest double chance value is 92.5% (1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF win or draw).
These values were computed from 177 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win78.7%

Draw13.8%

jerv to win7.5%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 774 of 960 predictions were correct (80.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–3

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time63.5%

Level at half-time29.0%

jerv lead at half-time7.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead or level92.5%

12 — not level at half-time71.0%

X2 — level or jerv ahead36.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 177 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 10Actual: 9
jerv: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 7Actual: 8
jerv: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score2.84

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: jerv concede 51% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals jerv score0.88

Attack: jerv score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–09.9%3–09.5%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.