Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 14

jerv–Sandefjord

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 July 2022 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: J.J. Ugland Stadion, Grimstad

Goals and red cards

51'jervA. Diallo (assist: F. Schröter)
55'SandefjordL. Markmanrud
77'SandefjordQuint Jansen

Match statistics

Match statistics
jerv		Sandefjord
12	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
370	Passes	379
278	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: jerv 1.39 · Sandefjord 1.68. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots jerv 12 · Sandefjord 19; on target 3 and 6.

Referee

T. Hagen→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.8%: “Sandefjord to win”. Second comes “jerv to win” at 30.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for jerv, 1.68 for Sandefjord.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 106 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

jerv to win30.6%

Draw25.6%

Sandefjord to win43.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,219 of 3,682 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — jerv win or draw56.2%

12 — any result other than a draw74.4%

X2 — draw or Sandefjord win69.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

jerv lead at half-time21.1%

Level at half-time39.6%

Sandefjord lead at half-time39.3%

First-half double chance

1X — jerv ahead or level60.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Sandefjord ahead78.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 106 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

jerv: at least 9Actual: 7
Sandefjord: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

jerv: at least 7Actual: 5
Sandefjord: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,731 of 2,756 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 58.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals jerv score1.39

Attack: jerv score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sandefjord concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sandefjord score1.68

Attack: Sandefjord score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: jerv concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–210.0%2–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 106 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 12 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.