Eliteserien · Norway · Regular Season - 13

Bodo/Glimt–Sarpsborg 08 FF

4–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 July 2022 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø

Goals and red cards

1'Sarpsborg 08 FFS. Skålevik (assist: M. Odegaard)
21'Bodo/GlimtH. Vetlesen (assist: U. Saltnes)
44'Bodo/GlimtU. Saltnes (assist: E. Hagen)
63'Bodo/GlimtV. Boniface (assist: J. Mvuka)
90+1'Bodo/GlimtV. Boniface (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Sarpsborg 08 FF
18	Shots	21
5	Shots on target	6
12	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	6
2	Offsides	4
45%	Possession	55%
381	Passes	492
317	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 2.26 · Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.41. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 18 · Sarpsborg 08 FF 21; on target 5 and 6.
Sarpsborg 08 FF kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

T. Hagen→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.8%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “Sarpsborg 08 FF to win” at 21.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.26 for Bodo/Glimt, 1.41 for Sarpsborg 08 FF.
The highest double chance value is 78.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 98 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win56.8%

Draw21.3%

Sarpsborg 08 FF to win21.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Bodo/Glimt lead at half-time22.7%

Level at half-time37.6%

Sarpsborg 08 FF lead at half-time39.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt ahead or level60.3%

12 — not level at half-time62.4%

X2 — level or Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead77.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 98 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodo/Glimt: at least 8Actual: 8
Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

Bodo/Glimt: at least 8Actual: 7
Sarpsborg 08 FF: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score2.26

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Sarpsborg 08 FF concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.26 goals.

How many goals Sarpsborg 08 FF score1.41

Attack: Sarpsborg 08 FF score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.1%1–18.9%3–17.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.