Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Round - 7

Sektzia Nes Tziona–Bnei Sakhnin

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 May 2023 at 13:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: HaMoshava Stadium, Petah Tikva

Share on X

Goals and red cards

15'Sektzia Nes TzionaO. Roizman
38'Bnei SakhninB. Khuri

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sektzia Nes Tziona 1.00 · Bnei Sakhnin 1.38. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

Y. Klez→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “Bnei Sakhnin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.00 for Sektzia Nes Tziona, 1.38 for Bnei Sakhnin.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (X2 — draw or Bnei Sakhnin win).
These values were computed from 206 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sektzia Nes Tziona to win25.8%

Draw29.1%

Bnei Sakhnin to win45.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,197 of 4,687 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sektzia Nes Tziona win or draw54.9%

12 — any result other than a draw70.9%

X2 — draw or Bnei Sakhnin win74.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Sektzia Nes Tziona lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time42.9%

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time33.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Sektzia Nes Tziona ahead or level66.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Bnei Sakhnin ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 206 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Corners

Sektzia Nes Tziona: at least 4
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (44.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sektzia Nes Tziona score1.00

Attack: Sektzia Nes Tziona score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score1.38

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sektzia Nes Tziona concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–112.1%1–29.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.