Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Round - 6

Hapoel Haifa–Sektzia Nes Tziona

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 May 2023 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sammy Ofer Stadium, Haifa

Share on X

Goals and red cards

85'Sektzia Nes TzionaA. Buzaglo

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Haifa 1.47 · Sektzia Nes Tziona 0.82. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

R. Geva→

8.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “Hapoel Haifa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Hapoel Haifa, 0.82 for Sektzia Nes Tziona.
The highest double chance value is 80.4% (1X — Hapoel Haifa win or draw).
These values were computed from 203 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Haifa to win52.3%

Draw28.2%

Sektzia Nes Tziona to win19.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Haifa win or draw80.4%

12 — any result other than a draw71.8%

X2 — draw or Sektzia Nes Tziona win47.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Haifa lead at half-time37.7%

Level at half-time44.4%

Sektzia Nes Tziona lead at half-time17.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Haifa ahead or level82.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Sektzia Nes Tziona ahead62.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 203 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Corners

Hapoel Haifa: at least 5
Sektzia Nes Tziona: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Haifa score1.47

Attack: Hapoel Haifa score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sektzia Nes Tziona concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sektzia Nes Tziona score0.82

Attack: Sektzia Nes Tziona score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Haifa concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.3%1–114.0%2–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.