Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Round - 5

Sektzia Nes Tziona–Beitar Jerusalem

1–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 April 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: HaMoshava Stadium, Petah Tikva

Goals and red cards

69'Beitar JerusalemA. Cohen
72'Beitar JerusalemB. Cohen
76'Sektzia Nes TzionaA. Buzaglo
82'Beitar JerusalemD. Moreno

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sektzia Nes Tziona		Beitar Jerusalem
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	7
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sektzia Nes Tziona 1.22 · Beitar Jerusalem 1.62. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Sektzia Nes Tziona 0 · Beitar Jerusalem 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

N. Odeh→

6.00

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.1%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “Sektzia Nes Tziona to win” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Sektzia Nes Tziona, 1.62 for Beitar Jerusalem.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 201 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sektzia Nes Tziona to win27.5%

Draw26.4%

Beitar Jerusalem to win46.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,772 of 6,687 predictions were correct (56.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sektzia Nes Tziona win or draw53.9%

12 — any result other than a draw73.6%

X2 — draw or Beitar Jerusalem win72.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sektzia Nes Tziona lead at half-time22.5%

Level at half-time40.2%

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time37.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Sektzia Nes Tziona ahead or level62.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Beitar Jerusalem ahead77.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 201 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Corners

Sektzia Nes Tziona: at least 4Actual: 6
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,889 of 5,365 predictions were correct (53.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sektzia Nes Tziona score1.22

Attack: Sektzia Nes Tziona score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score1.62

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sektzia Nes Tziona concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–210.3%0–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 201 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 26 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.