Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Round - 4

Ironi Kiryat Shmona–Sektzia Nes Tziona

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 April 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium, Kiryat Shmona

Goals and red cards

21'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaR. Kehat
90+8'Sektzia Nes TzionaY. Stoyanov

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ironi Kiryat Shmona		Sektzia Nes Tziona
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.57 · Sektzia Nes Tziona 1.04. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0 · Sektzia Nes Tziona 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

I. Frid→

5.00

yellows per match

0.35

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.3%: “Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 1.04 for Sektzia Nes Tziona.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona win or draw).
These values were computed from 198 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win49.3%

Draw27.1%

Sektzia Nes Tziona to win23.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,845 of 7,510 predictions were correct (51.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona win or draw76.4%

12 — any result other than a draw72.9%

X2 — draw or Sektzia Nes Tziona win50.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time39.5%

Level at half-time40.9%

Sektzia Nes Tziona lead at half-time19.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead or level80.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Sektzia Nes Tziona ahead60.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 198 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Corners

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 5Actual: 4
Sektzia Nes Tziona: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,488 of 5,327 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.57

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sektzia Nes Tziona concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sektzia Nes Tziona score1.04

Attack: Sektzia Nes Tziona score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–010.8%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 198 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 26 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.