Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Round - 3

Sektzia Nes Tziona–Maccabi Bnei Raina

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 April 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: HaMoshava Stadium, Petah Tikva

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Goals and red cards

45+1'Maccabi Bnei RainaS. Azulay
70'Sektzia Nes TzionaStephane Acka
72'Maccabi Bnei RainaA. Meir

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sektzia Nes Tziona 1.26 · Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.23. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

D. Fuxman→

3.33

yellows per match

0.58

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.2%: “Sektzia Nes Tziona to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Bnei Raina to win” at 34.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Sektzia Nes Tziona, 1.23 for Maccabi Bnei Raina.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 195 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sektzia Nes Tziona to win36.2%

Draw29.2%

Maccabi Bnei Raina to win34.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sektzia Nes Tziona win or draw65.4%

12 — any result other than a draw70.8%

X2 — draw or Maccabi Bnei Raina win63.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Sektzia Nes Tziona lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time42.4%

Maccabi Bnei Raina lead at half-time20.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sektzia Nes Tziona ahead or level79.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Maccabi Bnei Raina ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 195 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Corners

Sektzia Nes Tziona: at least 4
Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals45.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,488 of 5,327 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sektzia Nes Tziona score1.26

Attack: Sektzia Nes Tziona score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Bnei Raina concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Bnei Raina score1.23

Attack: Maccabi Bnei Raina score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sektzia Nes Tziona concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–09.6%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.