Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Round - 3

Maccabi Netanya–Hapoel Katamon

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 4 April 2023 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Miriam Stadium, Netanya

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.8% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

73'Hapoel KatamonG. Badash (penalty)
86'Hapoel KatamonJ. Botaka (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Netanya 1.23 · Hapoel Katamon 1.13. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

N. Steif→

5.00

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Maccabi Netanya to win”. Second comes “Hapoel Katamon to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Maccabi Netanya, 1.13 for Hapoel Katamon.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 188 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Netanya to win37.4%

Draw30.0%

Hapoel Katamon to win32.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score51.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,617 of 7,015 predictions were correct (51.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Maccabi Netanya win or draw67.4%

12 — any result other than a draw70.0%

X2 — draw or Hapoel Katamon win62.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time33.1%

Level at half-time43.5%

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Netanya ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Hapoel Katamon ahead66.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 188 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Corners

Maccabi Netanya: at least 5
Hapoel Katamon: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (43.6%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.23

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score1.13

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–010.7%0–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 188 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 28 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.