Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Round - 2

Hapoel Tel Aviv–Sektzia Nes Tziona

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 April 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv

Goals and red cards

45+3'Sektzia Nes TzionaU. Mohammed · red card
60'Hapoel Tel AvivA. Ozbolt
87'Hapoel Tel AvivH. Ilić
90+5'Sektzia Nes TzionaM. Fadida

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Tel Aviv		Sektzia Nes Tziona
9	Shots	4
7	Shots on target	2
0	Shots inside the box	0
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.52 · Sektzia Nes Tziona 1.02. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Hapoel Tel Aviv 9 · Sektzia Nes Tziona 4; on target 7 and 2.
Hapoel Tel Aviv kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

I. Layba→

3.36

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.3%: “Hapoel Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, 1.02 for Sektzia Nes Tziona.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (1X — Hapoel Tel Aviv win or draw).
These values were computed from 185 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win48.3%

Draw27.7%

Sektzia Nes Tziona to win24.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	5

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Both teams to score52.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,845 of 7,510 predictions were correct (51.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Tel Aviv win or draw76.0%

12 — any result other than a draw72.3%

X2 — draw or Sektzia Nes Tziona win51.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Tel Aviv lead at half-time39.8%

Level at half-time40.9%

Sektzia Nes Tziona lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Sektzia Nes Tziona ahead60.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 185 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Corners

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 5Actual: 5
Sektzia Nes Tziona: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals46.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,488 of 5,327 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score1.52

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sektzia Nes Tziona concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sektzia Nes Tziona score1.02

Attack: Sektzia Nes Tziona score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–011.2%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 185 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 26 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.