Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 26

Sektzia Nes Tziona–Hapoel Hadera

1–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 March 2023 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: HaMoshava Stadium, Petah Tikva

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.7% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'Sektzia Nes TzionaA. Buzaglo
68'Hapoel HaderaS. Bourard
78'Hapoel HaderaG. Avramov
90+3'Hapoel HaderaN. Gotlieb

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sektzia Nes Tziona		Hapoel Hadera
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	9
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sektzia Nes Tziona 1.28 · Hapoel Hadera 1.19. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Sektzia Nes Tziona 0 · Hapoel Hadera 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

N. Steif→

5.22

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Sektzia Nes Tziona to win”. Second comes “Hapoel Hadera to win” at 33.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Sektzia Nes Tziona, 1.19 for Hapoel Hadera.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 177 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sektzia Nes Tziona to win37.7%

Draw29.2%

Hapoel Hadera to win33.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,846 of 7,512 predictions were correct (51.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sektzia Nes Tziona win or draw67.0%

12 — any result other than a draw70.8%

X2 — draw or Hapoel Hadera win62.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sektzia Nes Tziona lead at half-time28.1%

Level at half-time42.8%

Hapoel Hadera lead at half-time29.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Sektzia Nes Tziona ahead or level70.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Hapoel Hadera ahead71.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 177 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Corners

Sektzia Nes Tziona: at least 4Actual: 6
Hapoel Hadera: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals45.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,488 of 5,328 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sektzia Nes Tziona score1.28

Attack: Sektzia Nes Tziona score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Hadera concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Hadera score1.19

Attack: Hapoel Hadera score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sektzia Nes Tziona concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–09.9%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 177 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 25 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.