Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 34

Hatayspor–Başakşehir

2–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mersin Stadyumu, Mersin

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'HataysporC. Strandberg (assist: G. Sağlam)
9'BaşakşehirK. Piatek (assist: M. Crespo)
30'BaşakşehirYusuf Sarı (assist: M. Crespo)
56'HataysporBilal Boutobba (assist: K. Corekci)
82'BaşakşehirIvan Brnić (assist: Umut Güneş)
90+1'BaşakşehirJ. Figueiredo

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hatayspor		Başakşehir
8	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	13
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	7
2	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
377	Passes	441
309	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hatayspor 1.28 · Başakşehir 1.66. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Hatayspor 8 · Başakşehir 18; on target 4 and 5.

Unavailable players

Hatayspor

J. Fernandesout · yellow-card suspension
L. Diackout · injury
V. Aboubakarout · not in squad

Başakşehir

Onur Ergünout · Broken ankle

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

A. Yılmaz→

4.37

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.1%: “Başakşehir to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Hatayspor, 2.32 for Başakşehir.
The highest double chance value is 84.1% (X2 — draw or Başakşehir win).
These values were computed from 993 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hatayspor to win15.9%

Draw20.0%

Başakşehir to win64.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Hatayspor lead at half-time33.4%

Level at half-time40.1%

Başakşehir lead at half-time26.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Hatayspor ahead or level73.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Başakşehir ahead66.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 992 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hatayspor: at least 13Actual: 14
Başakşehir: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Hatayspor: at least 4Actual: 4
Başakşehir: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hatayspor score1.28

Attack: Hatayspor score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Başakşehir's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Başakşehir score1.66

Attack: Başakşehir score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hatayspor concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.6%1–19.2%0–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.