Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 20

Ashdod–Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 January 2023 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yud-Alef Stadium, Ashdod

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

72'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaM. Shaker
90+2'AshdodE. Shahaf

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ashdod 1.53 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.01. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

N. Steif→

5.38

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.9%: “Ashdod to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Ashdod, 1.01 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (1X — Ashdod win or draw).
These values were computed from 133 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ashdod to win48.9%

Draw27.6%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win23.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,617 of 7,015 predictions were correct (51.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ashdod win or draw76.5%

12 — any result other than a draw72.4%

X2 — draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona win51.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ashdod lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time43.5%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Ashdod ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 133 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Goals market

3+ goals46.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,319 of 4,971 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ashdod score1.53

Attack: Ashdod score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.01

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ashdod's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–011.4%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 133 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 19 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.