Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 18

Maccabi Netanya–Hapoel Haifa

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 January 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Miriam Stadium, Netanya

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.4% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Maccabi NetanyaL. Rotman

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Netanya 1.08 · Hapoel Haifa 1.13. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

N. Steif→

5.33

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.7%: “Hapoel Haifa to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Netanya to win” at 33.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for Maccabi Netanya, 1.13 for Hapoel Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 68.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 122 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Netanya to win33.2%

Draw31.1%

Hapoel Haifa to win35.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time21.3%

Level at half-time45.6%

Hapoel Haifa lead at half-time33.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Netanya ahead or level66.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.4%

X2 — level or Hapoel Haifa ahead78.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 122 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.08

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Haifa concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Haifa score1.13

Attack: Hapoel Haifa score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–111.5%1–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.