Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 15

Hapoel Katamon–Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 December 2022 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Teddi Malcha Stadium, Jerusalem

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Goals and red cards

34'Hapoel KatamonA. Habashi (own goal)
90+10'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaA. Habashi (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Katamon 1.80 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0.90. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

N. Steif→

5.20

yellows per match

0.60

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.6%: “Hapoel Katamon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for Hapoel Katamon, 0.90 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
The highest double chance value is 82.9% (1X — Hapoel Katamon win or draw).
These values were computed from 99 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Katamon to win58.6%

Draw24.3%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win17.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Katamon win or draw82.9%

12 — any result other than a draw75.7%

X2 — draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona win41.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time41.9%

Level at half-time40.1%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time18.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Katamon ahead or level82.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead58.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 99 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Goals market

3+ goals51.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,683 of 4,996 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score1.80

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score0.90

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–011.3%2–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.