Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 13

Hapoel Hadera–Sektzia Nes Tziona

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 November 2022 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Miriam Stadium, Netanya

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Hadera		Sektzia Nes Tziona
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Hadera 1.65 · Sektzia Nes Tziona 1.12. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Hapoel Hadera 0 · Sektzia Nes Tziona 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

N. Steif→

5.25

yellows per match

0.75

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.4%: “Hapoel Hadera to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for Hapoel Hadera, 1.12 for Sektzia Nes Tziona.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (1X — Hapoel Hadera win or draw).
These values were computed from 85 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Hadera to win49.4%

Draw26.3%

Sektzia Nes Tziona to win24.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Hadera lead at half-time39.8%

Level at half-time38.0%

Sektzia Nes Tziona lead at half-time22.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Hadera ahead or level77.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Sektzia Nes Tziona ahead60.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 85 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Hadera score1.65

Attack: Hapoel Hadera score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sektzia Nes Tziona concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sektzia Nes Tziona score1.12

Attack: Sektzia Nes Tziona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Hadera's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.5%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.