1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 9

Karmiotissa–Doxa

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 3 May 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tsirion Athlítiko Kentro, Lemesós

Goals and red cards

13'DoxaE. Asante
45+4'KarmiotissaM. El Allouchi (penalty)
60'KarmiotissaM. El Allouchi (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Karmiotissa		Doxa
16	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	1
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
13	Fouls	9

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Karmiotissa 1.35 · Doxa 0.91. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Karmiotissa 16 · Doxa 11; on target 8 and 1.

Referee

D. Koumi→

4.57

yellows per match

0.57

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.4%: “Karmiotissa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Karmiotissa, 0.91 for Doxa.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (1X — Karmiotissa win or draw).
These values were computed from 199 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Karmiotissa to win46.4%

Draw29.6%

Doxa to win24.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Karmiotissa lead at half-time29.9%

Level at half-time46.7%

Doxa lead at half-time23.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Karmiotissa ahead or level76.5%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Doxa ahead70.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 198 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Karmiotissa: at least 14Actual: 13
Doxa: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Karmiotissa: at least 4Actual: 2
Doxa: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Karmiotissa score1.35

Attack: Karmiotissa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Doxa concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Doxa score0.91

Attack: Doxa score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Karmiotissa concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–013.3%0–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.