Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 33

Eyüpspor–Galatasaray

1–5

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 April 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'GalatasarayRoland Sallai (assist: V. Osimhen)
56'GalatasarayLucas Torreira
71'GalatasarayV. Osimhen
79'EyüpsporLuccas Claro (assist: C. Erkin)
87'GalatasarayÁlvaro Morata (assist: M. Lemina)
89'GalatasarayÁlvaro Morata (assist: K. Ayhan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eyüpspor		Galatasaray
8	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	8
3	Shots inside the box	14
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	5
3	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
374	Passes	381
310	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eyüpspor 1.27 · Galatasaray 1.69. On the pitch: 1-5.
Shots Eyüpspor 8 · Galatasaray 17; on target 3 and 8.

Unavailable players

Eyüpspor

F. Midtsjoout · Knee Injury
I. Taskinout · Muscle Injury
L. Duboisout · Muscle Injury
S. Gumusout · injury

Galatasaray

Barış Alper Yılmazout · yellow-card suspension
M. Icardiout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

Ç. Altay→

4.61

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.8%: “Galatasaray to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.94 for Eyüpspor, 2.22 for Galatasaray.
The highest double chance value is 86.7% (X2 — draw or Galatasaray win).
These values were computed from 987 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eyüpspor to win13.3%

Draw20.0%

Galatasaray to win66.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Eyüpspor win or draw33.2%

12 — any result other than a draw80.0%

X2 — draw or Galatasaray win86.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Eyüpspor lead at half-time28.2%

Level at half-time44.8%

Galatasaray lead at half-time27.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Eyüpspor ahead or level73.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Galatasaray ahead71.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 986 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eyüpspor: at least 11Actual: 12
Galatasaray: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Eyüpspor: at least 3Actual: 3
Galatasaray: at least 6Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eyüpspor score1.27

Attack: Eyüpspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Galatasaray concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Galatasaray score1.69

Attack: Galatasaray score 51% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Eyüpspor's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.9%0–210.6%1–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 987 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 31 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.