1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 4

Nea Salamis–Karmiotissa

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 7 April 2023 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca

Goals and red cards

22'Nea SalamisD. Dorregaray
80'KarmiotissaK. Loukili · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nea Salamis		Karmiotissa
6	Shots	9
1	Shots on target	4
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	6
4	Offsides	2
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
10	Fouls	12

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nea Salamis 1.49 · Karmiotissa 0.98. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Nea Salamis 6 · Karmiotissa 9; on target 1 and 4.

Referee

D. Koumi→

4.83

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.5%: “Nea Salamis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Nea Salamis, 0.98 for Karmiotissa.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (1X — Nea Salamis win or draw).
These values were computed from 190 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nea Salamis to win48.5%

Draw28.0%

Karmiotissa to win23.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,613 of 7,009 predictions were correct (51.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Nea Salamis win or draw76.5%

12 — any result other than a draw72.0%

X2 — draw or Karmiotissa win51.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Nea Salamis lead at half-time23.2%

Level at half-time45.5%

Karmiotissa lead at half-time31.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Nea Salamis ahead or level68.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Karmiotissa ahead76.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 189 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nea Salamis: at least 11Actual: 10
Karmiotissa: at least 15Actual: 12

Corners

Nea Salamis: at least 3Actual: 6
Karmiotissa: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals45.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,317 of 4,968 predictions were correct (46.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nea Salamis score1.49

Attack: Nea Salamis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karmiotissa concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karmiotissa score0.98

Attack: Karmiotissa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nea Salamis concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–011.9%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 190 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 26 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.