1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Round - 1

Nea Salamis–Akritas

4–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 March 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca

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Goals and red cards

16'AkritasS. Gavriel
30'Nea SalamisThiago Santos
54'Nea SalamisD. Dorregaray
90+4'Nea SalamisMichalis Koumouris
90+7'Nea SalamisT. Taulemesse

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nea Salamis 1.81 · Akritas 0.66. On the pitch: 4-1.

Referee

D. Koumi→

4.80

yellows per match

0.60

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.3%: “Nea Salamis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for Nea Salamis, 0.66 for Akritas.
The highest double chance value is 88.3% (1X — Nea Salamis win or draw).
These values were computed from 183 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nea Salamis to win65.3%

Draw23.0%

Akritas to win11.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Nea Salamis win or draw88.3%

12 — any result other than a draw77.0%

X2 — draw or Akritas win34.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Nea Salamis lead at half-time29.2%

Level at half-time45.0%

Akritas lead at half-time25.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Nea Salamis ahead or level74.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Akritas ahead70.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 182 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nea Salamis: at least 11
Akritas: at least 13

Corners

Nea Salamis: at least 4
Akritas: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals45.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,317 of 4,968 predictions were correct (46.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nea Salamis score1.81

Attack: Nea Salamis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Akritas concede 53% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Akritas score0.66

Attack: Akritas score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nea Salamis's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.8%2–014.3%1–111.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.