1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 18

Nea Salamis–Enosis

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 6 January 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Ammochostos Epistrofi, Larnaca

Goals and red cards

90+1'Nea SalamisV. Klimovich
90+10'Nea SalamisChico Banza

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nea Salamis		Enosis
9	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	4
0	Shots inside the box	0
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	8
2	Offsides	2
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
12	Fouls	27

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nea Salamis 1.36 · Enosis 0.88. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Nea Salamis 9 · Enosis 8; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

R. Costa→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.5%: “Nea Salamis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Nea Salamis, 0.88 for Enosis.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (1X — Nea Salamis win or draw).
These values were computed from 118 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nea Salamis to win47.5%

Draw29.5%

Enosis to win22.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Nea Salamis lead at half-time24.9%

Level at half-time45.5%

Enosis lead at half-time29.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Nea Salamis ahead or level70.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Enosis ahead75.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 117 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nea Salamis: at least 12Actual: 12
Enosis: at least 13Actual: 27

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nea Salamis score1.36

Attack: Nea Salamis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Enosis concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Enosis score0.88

Attack: Enosis score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nea Salamis concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–013.8%0–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.