1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 14

Enosis–Apollon Limassol

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 December 2022 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Tasos Markou, Paralímni

Goals and red cards

49'Apollon LimassolN. Diguiny

Match statistics

Match statistics
Enosis		Apollon Limassol
9	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	5
0	Shots inside the box	0
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
13	Fouls	13

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Enosis 0.85 · Apollon Limassol 1.15. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Enosis 9 · Apollon Limassol 10; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

D. Koumi→

5.00

yellows per match

0.75

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.9%: “Apollon Limassol to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.85 for Enosis, 1.15 for Apollon Limassol.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (X2 — draw or Apollon Limassol win).
These values were computed from 92 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Enosis to win25.8%

Draw32.3%

Apollon Limassol to win41.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Enosis lead at half-time18.6%

Level at half-time47.0%

Apollon Limassol lead at half-time34.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Enosis ahead or level65.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.0%

X2 — level or Apollon Limassol ahead81.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 92 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Enosis score0.85

Attack: Enosis score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Apollon Limassol concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Apollon Limassol score1.15

Attack: Apollon Limassol score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Enosis concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%0–115.0%0–013.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.