Superliga · Denmark · Championship Round - 10

Aarhus–Brondby

3–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 June 2023 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ceres Park & Arena, Århus

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'BrondbyO. Omoijuanfo (assist: M. Kvistgaarden)
37'AarhusK. Yakob · red card
38'BrondbyJ. Radošević
67'BrondbyM. Kvistgaarden (assist: M. Greve)
74'AarhusJ. Duin (assist: F. Beijmo)
80'BrondbyK. Mensah

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aarhus		Brondby
9	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
344	Passes	440
256	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aarhus 1.54 · Brondby 1.09. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Aarhus 9 · Brondby 12; on target 3 and 5.
Brondby kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Jens Maae, Denmark→

3.15

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.3%: “Aarhus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Aarhus, 1.09 for Brondby.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (1X — Aarhus win or draw).
These values were computed from 159 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aarhus to win47.3%

Draw27.3%

Brondby to win25.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–2

Aarhus lead at half-time36.4%

Level at half-time43.5%

Brondby lead at half-time20.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Aarhus ahead or level79.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Brondby ahead63.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 159 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aarhus: at least 9Actual: 8
Brondby: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Aarhus: at least 4Actual: 5
Brondby: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aarhus score1.54

Attack: Aarhus score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brondby's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brondby score1.09

Attack: Brondby score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Aarhus concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–110.3%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.