Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Round - 10

Aalborg–Silkeborg

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 June 2023 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aalborg Portland Park, Aalborg

Goals and red cards

74'SilkeborgA. Lind (assist: L. Engel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aalborg		Silkeborg
10	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	7
7	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
42%	Possession	58%
456	Passes	658
381	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aalborg 1.17 · Silkeborg 1.38. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Aalborg 10 · Silkeborg 12; on target 4 and 7.
Silkeborg kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Sandi Putros, Denmark→

3.87

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Silkeborg to win”. Second comes “Aalborg to win” at 30.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Aalborg, 1.38 for Silkeborg.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 159 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aalborg to win30.6%

Draw28.5%

Silkeborg to win40.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,613 of 7,010 predictions were correct (51.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Aalborg win or draw59.1%

12 — any result other than a draw71.5%

X2 — draw or Silkeborg win69.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Aalborg lead at half-time27.5%

Level at half-time46.7%

Silkeborg lead at half-time25.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Aalborg ahead or level74.2%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Silkeborg ahead72.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 159 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aalborg: at least 8Actual: 10
Silkeborg: at least 8Actual: 9

Corners

Aalborg: at least 4Actual: 7
Silkeborg: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (49.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aalborg score1.17

Attack: Aalborg score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Silkeborg's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Silkeborg score1.38

Attack: Silkeborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aalborg's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–19.8%1–29.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 159 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 22 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.