Superliga · Denmark · Championship Round - 8

FC Copenhagen–Aarhus

4–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 May 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parken Stadium, Copenhagen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'FC CopenhagenDiogo Gonçalves (penalty)
18'FC CopenhagenDiogo Gonçalves (assist: E. Jelert)
29'AarhusP. Mortensen (assist: F. Beijmo)
39'AarhusM. Anderson (assist: F. Beijmo)
53'AarhusK. Yakob (assist: F. Tingager)
76'FC CopenhagenJ. Larsson

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Copenhagen		Aarhus
13	Shots	18
7	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
451	Passes	521
371	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Copenhagen 1.21 · Aarhus 0.96. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots FC Copenhagen 13 · Aarhus 18; on target 7 and 6.

Referee

Mads Kristoffer Kristoffersen, Denmark→

4.33

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.0%: “FC Copenhagen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.21 for FC Copenhagen, 0.96 for Aarhus.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (1X — FC Copenhagen win or draw).
These values were computed from 154 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Copenhagen to win41.0%

Draw31.1%

Aarhus to win27.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

FC Copenhagen lead at half-time22.1%

Level at half-time50.9%

Aarhus lead at half-time27.0%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Copenhagen ahead or level73.0%

12 — not level at half-time49.1%

X2 — level or Aarhus ahead77.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 154 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Copenhagen: at least 8Actual: 11
Aarhus: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

FC Copenhagen: at least 4Actual: 4
Aarhus: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Copenhagen score1.21

Attack: FC Copenhagen score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Aarhus concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.21 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Aarhus score0.96

Attack: Aarhus score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Copenhagen concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–013.2%0–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.