Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Round - 7

FC Midtjylland–AC Horsens

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 May 2023 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MCH Arena, Herning

Goals and red cards

20'FC MidtjyllandS. Gartenmann (assist: Kristoffer Olsson)
24'AC HorsensT. Santos (assist: A. Jacobsen)
50'FC MidtjyllandMalte Kiilerich (own goal)
72'FC MidtjyllandGustav Isaksen (assist: Kristoffer Olsson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Midtjylland		AC Horsens
24	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
12	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
504	Passes	296
417	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Midtjylland 1.70 · AC Horsens 0.99. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots FC Midtjylland 24 · AC Horsens 8; on target 7 and 3.
FC Midtjylland kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Jacob Karlsen, Denmark→

3.20

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.8%: “FC Midtjylland to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for FC Midtjylland, 0.99 for AC Horsens.
The highest double chance value is 79.6% (1X — FC Midtjylland win or draw).
These values were computed from 150 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Midtjylland to win53.8%

Draw25.7%

AC Horsens to win20.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

FC Midtjylland lead at half-time49.8%

Level at half-time38.1%

AC Horsens lead at half-time12.1%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Midtjylland ahead or level87.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.9%

X2 — level or AC Horsens ahead50.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 150 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Midtjylland: at least 7Actual: 5
AC Horsens: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

FC Midtjylland: at least 5Actual: 12
AC Horsens: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Midtjylland score1.70

Attack: FC Midtjylland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AC Horsens concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AC Horsens score0.99

Attack: AC Horsens score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–010.8%2–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.