Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Round - 6

Aalborg–AC Horsens

4–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 May 2023 at 10:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aalborg Portland Park, Aalborg

Goals and red cards

37'AalborgY. Bakiz (assist: Allan Sousa)
54'AalborgI. Fossum (assist: K. Pallesen)
72'AalborgY. Bakiz (assist: L. Andersen)
82'AalborgO. Ross

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aalborg		AC Horsens
21	Shots	5
10	Shots on target	1
14	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	2
4	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
364	Passes	326
264	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aalborg 1.31 · AC Horsens 1.19. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Aalborg 21 · AC Horsens 5; on target 10 and 1.

Referee

Jacob A. Sundberg, Denmark→

4.64

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.4%: “Aalborg to win”. Second comes “AC Horsens to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Aalborg, 1.19 for AC Horsens.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 147 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aalborg to win38.4%

Draw29.0%

AC Horsens to win32.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Aalborg lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time45.9%

AC Horsens lead at half-time20.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Aalborg ahead or level79.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or AC Horsens ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 147 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aalborg: at least 7Actual: 11
AC Horsens: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Aalborg: at least 5Actual: 6
AC Horsens: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aalborg score1.31

Attack: Aalborg score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AC Horsens concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AC Horsens score1.19

Attack: AC Horsens score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aalborg's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–09.8%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.