Superliga · Denmark · Championship Round - 5

FC Copenhagen–Brondby

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 April 2023 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parken Stadium, Copenhagen

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 12%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

79'BrondbyO. Omoijuanfo (assist: Nicolai Vallys)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Copenhagen		Brondby
16	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	6
2	Offsides	3
70%	Possession	30%
656	Passes	281
584	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Copenhagen 2.20 · Brondby 0.86. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots FC Copenhagen 16 · Brondby 10; on target 6 and 4.
FC Copenhagen kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

Sandi Putros, Denmark→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.5%: “FC Copenhagen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.20 for FC Copenhagen, 0.86 for Brondby.
The highest double chance value is 88.1% (1X — FC Copenhagen win or draw).
These values were computed from 145 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Copenhagen to win68.5%

Draw19.6%

Brondby to win11.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Copenhagen lead at half-time45.1%

Level at half-time41.2%

Brondby lead at half-time13.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Copenhagen ahead or level86.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Brondby ahead54.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 145 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Copenhagen: at least 8Actual: 5
Brondby: at least 10Actual: 17

Corners

FC Copenhagen: at least 5Actual: 4
Brondby: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Copenhagen score2.20

Attack: FC Copenhagen score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Brondby concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.20 goals.

How many goals Brondby score0.86

Attack: Brondby score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Copenhagen concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.6%2–110.8%1–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.