Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Round - 5

AC Horsens–Odense

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 28 April 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: CASA Arena, Horsens

Goals and red cards

5'OdenseE. Sabbi (assist: N. Skytta)
35'AC HorsensA. Jacobsen (penalty)
57'OdenseA. Mustafić (assist: N. Skytta)
72'AC HorsensA. Sigurðarson (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Horsens		Odense
18	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	4
15	Shots inside the box	12
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	8
2	Offsides	4
42%	Possession	58%
350	Passes	512
254	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Horsens 1.44 · Odense 1.43. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots AC Horsens 18 · Odense 13; on target 6 and 4.
Odense kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Aydin Uslu, Denmark→

2.75

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.7%: “AC Horsens to win”. Second comes “Odense to win” at 36.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for AC Horsens, 1.43 for Odense.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 144 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Horsens to win36.7%

Draw27.0%

Odense to win36.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,214 of 3,676 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AC Horsens win or draw63.7%

12 — any result other than a draw73.0%

X2 — draw or Odense win63.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

AC Horsens lead at half-time24.5%

Level at half-time40.7%

Odense lead at half-time34.8%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Horsens ahead or level65.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Odense ahead75.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 144 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Horsens: at least 10Actual: 10
Odense: at least 7Actual: 9

Corners

AC Horsens: at least 4Actual: 4
Odense: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,135 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Horsens score1.44

Attack: AC Horsens score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Odense concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Odense score1.43

Attack: Odense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AC Horsens concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–19.2%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 144 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 22 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.