Superliga · Denmark · Championship Round - 4

Aarhus–FC Copenhagen

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 April 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ceres Park & Arena, Århus

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aarhus		FC Copenhagen
9	Shots	6
2	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	3
3	Offsides	2
42%	Possession	58%
420	Passes	609
334	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aarhus 0.93 · FC Copenhagen 1.37. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Aarhus 9 · FC Copenhagen 6; on target 2 and 1.
FC Copenhagen kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Mikkel Redder, Denmark→

4.36

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.5%: “FC Copenhagen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.93 for Aarhus, 1.37 for FC Copenhagen.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (X2 — draw or FC Copenhagen win).
These values were computed from 143 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aarhus to win24.1%

Draw29.4%

FC Copenhagen to win46.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Aarhus lead at half-time30.6%

Level at half-time48.4%

FC Copenhagen lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Aarhus ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time51.6%

X2 — level or FC Copenhagen ahead69.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 143 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aarhus: at least 11Actual: 13
FC Copenhagen: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

Aarhus: at least 4Actual: 9
FC Copenhagen: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aarhus score0.93

Attack: Aarhus score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Copenhagen concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Copenhagen score1.37

Attack: FC Copenhagen score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Aarhus concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.37 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–113.1%0–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.